Sociology of population explosion and health security for Nigeria by 2050


Background: Nigeria with an estimated population of 198 million at annual growth rate of 2.6%, is experiencing demographic transition with serious implication for health security. The micro factors influencing population explosion are literacy, occupational status, age at first marriage, sex preference, social security and objections to birth control. While the macro factors include culture and tradition, patriarchy, pro-natalism (traditional urge to have descendant), resource sharing, poverty, age structure of the population, ethnicity and heterogeneity, religion,
population and health policy.

Situation analysis: By year 2050, Nigeria’s population will increase from 195.4million to 278.8 million, which can either be a strength or weakness to the nation’s growth and development. While life expectancy may increase from 53.76 to 69.3 there will also be increase in dependency ratio. Although, the SWOT analysis indicates that population increase may result in improved productivity and labour force strengthening, this may stampede development if policies and programmes are not tailored towards basic developmental indicators.

Conclusion: Short term intervention should include review of existing population and health policies to identify implementation bottlenecks; identify indigenous resources for effective intervention; and seek support for intervention by conduct stakeholders’ engagement meetings. Medium term plan are development of programme of action and curriculum for capacity building. Long term plan targets policy formulation and legislation. Funding for the activities can be sourced from development agencies namely UNDP, UNICEF, UNFPA, EU, World Bank, Federal Government of Nigeria and Philanthropist.

Keywords: Population explosion, health security, forecast, Nigeria

Contexte: Le Nigeria, avec une population estimée à 198 millions d’habitants, avec un taux de croissance annuel de 2,6 %, connaît une transition démographique qui a de graves conséquences pour la sécurité sanitaire. Les microfacteurs qui influencent l’explosion démographique sont l’alphabétisation, le statut professionnel, l’âge au premier mariage, les préférences sexuelles, la sécurité sociale et les objections au contrôle des naissances. Alors que les macro-facteurs incluent la culture et la tradition, le patriarcat, le pro-natalisme (envie traditionnelle d’avoir un
descendant), le partage des ressources, la pauvreté, la structure d’âge de la population, l’ethnicité et l’hétérogénéité, la religion, la population et la politique de santé.

Analyse de la situation : D’ici à 2050, la population du Nigeria passera de 195,4 millions à 278,8 millions, ce qui peut être une force ou une faiblesse pour la croissance et le développement du pays. Tandis que l’espérance de vie puisse augmenter de 53,76 à 69,3, le taux de dépendance augmentera également. Bien que l’analyse SWOT indique que l’augmentation de la population peut entraîner une amélioration de la productivité et un renforcement de la maind’œuvre, cela peut entraver le développement si les politiques et les programmes ne sont pas adaptés aux indicateurs de développement de base.

Conclusion : L’intervention à court terme devrait inclure un examen des politiques existantes en matière de population et de santé pour identifier les goulots d’étranglement de la mise en œuvre ; identifier les ressources indigènes pour une intervention efficace ; et chercher du soutien pour l’intervention en organisant des réunions d’engagement des parties prenantes. Les plans à moyen terme sont l’élaboration d’un programme d’action et d’un programme de renforcement des capacités. Le plan à long terme cible la formulation des politiques et la législation. Le financement des activités peut provenir des agences de développement, à savoir le PNUD, l’UNICEF, l’UNFPA, l’UE, la Banque mondiale, le gouvernement fédéral du Nigéria et les philanthropes.

Mots-clés: Explosion démographique, sécurité sanitaire, prévision, Nigéria

Correspondence: Prof. A.S. Jegede, Department of Sociology, Faculty of the Social Sciences, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. Email:



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