Blueprint for health security in Nigeria by 2050: Ageing and ageing - related diseases


Background: Nigeria is currently populated by about 200 million people of diverse ethnic, cultural and religious inclinations. Projections estimate that the proportion and absolute number of older persons aged 60 years and above (currently about 5% of the total population) will increase to 25 million by the year 2050. Ageing of the Nigerian population has far reaching multifaceted economic, psychosocial, educational and health implications.

Situation analysis: In this paper, a scenario-based analysis is presented on the likely trajectory of health security for older Nigerians by the year 2050. Ageing – associated diseases are predominantly non - communicable (NCD) and their burden is likely to increase over the next 30 years. The combined burden of NCDs and infectious diseases (malaria, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, emerging and re – emerging diseases) suggest that the demand on health services (preventive, diagnostic, curative, rehabilitative and palliative care) from older persons and the elderly will increase in tandem with the growth of this segment of the population.

Conclusion: A blueprint for achieving healthy ageing for older persons by the year 2050 is presented. This encompasses set targets, strategic plans and a monitoring and evaluation scheme. Improved funding and coverage of the National Health Insurance Scheme, better pensions and retirement benefit coverage, other social schemes and policy interventions and rigorous implementation schemes are all required for achieving health security by the year 2050 with respect to ageing and ageing –related disorders.

Keywords: Health Security; Ageing; Ageing – related Diseases; Implementation; RE-AIM Framework

Contexte : Le Nigéria compte actuellement environ 200 millions de personnes d’origines ethniques, culturelles et religieuses diverses. Les projections estiment que la proportion et le nombre absolu de personnes âgées de 60 ans et plus (actuellement environ 5% de la population totale) passeront à 25 millions d’ici 2050. Le vieillissement de la population nigériane a de nombreuses facettes économiques, psychosociales, éducatives et implications pour la santé.

Analyse de la situation : Dans cet article, une analyse basée sur des scénarios est présentée sur la trajectoire probable de la sécurité sanitaire des Nigérians âgés d’ici 2050. Les maladies associées au vieillissement sont principalement non transmissibles (MNT) et leur fardeau est susceptible d’augmenter au cours des prochains 30 ans. Le fardeau combiné des MNT et des maladies infectieuses (paludisme, tuberculose, VIH / Sida, maladies émergentes et réémergentes) suggère que la demande de services de santé (soins préventifs, diagnostiques, curatifs, de réadaptation et palliatifs) pour les personnes âgées augmentera en tandem avec la croissance de ce segment de la population.

Conclusion : Un plan directeur pour parvenir à un vieillissement en bonne santé des personnes âgées d’ici 2050 est présenté. Cela comprend des objectifs fixés, des plans stratégiques et un programme de suivi et d’évaluation. Un financement et une couverture améliorés du Régime national d’assurance de santé, de meilleures pensions et une meilleure couverture des prestations de retraite, d’autres régimes sociaux et interventions politiques et des régimes de mise en œuvre rigoureux sont tous nécessaires pour assurer la sécurité sanitaire d’ici 2050 en ce qui concerne le vieillissement et les troubles liés au vieillissement.

Mots - clés : Sécurité sanitaire; Vieillissement; Maladies liées au vieillissement; Mise en œuvre; Cadre REAIM

Correspondence: Dr. R.O. Akinyemi, Neuroscience and Ageing Research Unit, Institute for Advanced Medical Research and Training, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. Email:



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